AUD Nears Parity

The word "parity" is becoming a mainstay of traders in the forex markets. In 2007, it applied to the Canadian Dollar, which had rallied 70% over the course of five years to reach the mythical 1:1 level against the USD. This year, it is the Australian Dollar that is threatening to surpass the Dollar in value. The AUD has always benefited from general USD weakness, but now the focus is shifting to the AUD, itself. The most recent Australian price data suggests that inflation in Australia remains problematic, which could force its Central Bank to raise the benchmark lending rate to 7.5%. In addition, high commodity prices and consequently strong exports should provide demand for the currency. As always, analysts are divided over the likelihood of parity, but that hasn't stopped them from bandying the term about. The Australian Age reports:

Parity was never a "ridiculous suggestion." "But it's probably a bit tougher going because the Australian economy is slowing," says one analyst. "Then again, if you saw a reacceleration in growth, that might be a different story."

Read More: Our dollar on a roll...

Fundamentals Harm Emerging Market Currencies

Since the inception of the credit crunch, one of the themes in forex markets has been the surprising strength of the Dollar. Despite growing economic uncertainty, the US is still viewed as a relatively safe place to invest. On the other hand, emerging markets, especially those with current account deficits, have witnessed capital flight and subsequent currency depreciation. The currencies of South Africa and Iceland, for example, have both experienced declines 20% since the start of this year. Risk premiums had fallen to historic lows prior to the credit crunch, and neither country experienced great difficulty financing its respecive deficits. However, investors are growing increasingly nervous and are shifting capital to countries with stable current account balances. The Financial Times reports:

Goldman Sachs says: "We have long argued that in times of global turmoil suppliers of capital are poised to outperform countries in need of capital. However, it is only since January 2008 that we have seen the current account theme really gain momentum in the FX market."

Barclays Introduces Carry Trade ETN

Through its trademark iPATH line of funds, Barclays Bank recently introduced a new ETN designed to mimic the carry trade. In accordance with this strategy, this note is linked to the performance of the Barclays Intelligent Carry Index, which aims sell low-yielding currencies and use the proceeds to invest in those that offer higher yields. This index holds varying combinations of the so-called G10 currencies, which includes all of the majors as well as the Norwegian Krona and Swedish Krona. Traditionally, carry traders have sold one specific currency (i.e. Japanese Yen) in favor of another currency (i.e. the New Zealand Dollar). By instead purchasing this note, which will trade under the ticker ICI, investors can buy a share of an entire portfolio, optimized expressly for this strategy. Comtex reports:

The index is composed of ten cash-settled currency forward agreements, one for each index constituent currency, as well as a "Hedged USD Overnight Index" which is intended to reflect the performance of a risk-free U.S. dollar-denominated asset.

Read More: Barclays Launches New iPATH ETN

USD: Worst Quarter in 4 Years

In the first three months of 2008, the USD notched its worst quarterly performance since 2004, falling over 8%. During the same period, the Dollar lost 10% of its value against the Japanese Yen and 6.4% against a broad basket of currencies. Forex analysts reckon the slide was so steep because investors have taken stock of the US economic situation and have concluded that recession is inevitable. The story is also being driven by interest rates. The Fed has already cut rates by 300 bps in the current cycle of easing, making the benchmark federal funds rate the lowest in the industrialized world, in real terms. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is giving every indication that it will maintain rates at current levels in order to keep a lid on inflation. As a result, the Dollar could fall further, especially if the Fed continues to hike rates and investors use the currency to fund carry trades. Reuters reports:

[According to one analyst], "And to call a bottom now is still a very risky call. It's too early to say the worst is behind us and the dollar's in for a sharp rebound."

Read More: Dollar logs weakest quarter vs euro since 2004

GBP looks good today

I did some tech analysis,and gbp looks very cheap today at 1.9968,it should reach 2.0040,keep stop loss at 1.9920.

Happy Trading!

Hello,I am Dr Pips

I'm Dr Pips,or Vevek Nanor,a successful forex trader ,welcome to my blog ,i'll be providing news views and strategies here.